Posted on Jun 11, 2017 | 0 comments

M-a apucat râsul dimineață. Mi-am adus aminte că prin 2012 dădusem peste un concurs de eseuri: cum vezi tu Uniunea Europeană în 2030 (”Imagine EU 2030”). Organizat de ceva fundație care promova legăturile de prietenie dintre statele membre ale Uniunii Europene. Iar eu fiind un troll nesimțit le-am trimis textul de mai jos alături de un e-mail în care-mi exprimam dorința de a câștiga concursul cu viziunea mea legată de viitorul Europei. E de la sine înțeles că n-am câștigat, dar a meritat efortul. Lăsând gluma la o parte, țineți totuși minte că am scris asta în 2012, înainte de Brexit, războiul din Ucraina și isteria musulmană. Eseul e mai jos:

”The faith of the EU will be sealed by 2020. By 2030 it will remain a faded memory as the member states will be struggling to recover from the fall of the Euro and the power the US Dollar will be holding as a universal currency. This in turn will strengthen the US economy and the national debt of the United States will be easier to pay, granting a strong foothold for the global economy of Europe. Analysts will battle for years as of why this Union of European states failed and countries will revert back to their own laws and customs, with only the most politically and economically advanced keeping shards of former EU rules and regulations as these will be hard to change in the mindset of countries like Germany or Luxembourg.
Once the Monetary Union will collapse a new Financial Crisis will make the world shiver, and this will likely take place before 2020. The adoption of the Euro in more and more member states will prove that the value of the same currency differs greatly as the borders change. Mass migrations from more economically unfortunate countries like Romania and Bulgaria will spark a new wave of xenophobia in other countries like Spain and Hungary as more and more foreigners will struggle to take on jobs normally destined for locals. More and more cash will be sent abroad to these economically-unstable member states and soon Greece, Bulgaria and Romania will become dependent on this income. When the Euro will fall it will be these countries that will feel the full wrath of the next Financial Crisis as aid from other member states will be too log postponed due to social unrest, xenophobia and extremist parties that will grab the chance of economic instability to have a word in political decisions.
Paradoxically, the absence of war in Europe will hurry the downfall of the European Union, as war leads to scientific progress and scientific progress leads to economic stability. Members states of the EU becoming less and less preoccupied with military affairs will soon prove unfit to deal with social unrest, riots, waves of hate toward foreigners. Governments will change and more and more member states will start leaving the European Union and reverting back to their old monetary system as the gloom of the impending financial collapse will become evident. This change will in turn lead to mass migrations of foreign workers back to their countries of origin, all in search for better jobs and trying to maintain the lifestyles they grew accustomed with. Since this will soon prove impossible, uncertainty will make people pick more radical solutions as nations will direct their hopes to the extremes of political choices, with radical groups gaining more and more powers in both stable and unstable nations. Radical groups will ask for detachment from the EU in order to preserve national spirit, customs and a sense of national pride.
Due to astronomical prices for gas as a direct result of the unavailability of natural resources, the lifestyles of EU citizens will be greatly affected. This is another factor that will lead to social unrest and radical measures, the result being an abrupt collapse of the remaining European Union member states. With no aid from better-fairing European states, countries like Romania and Bulgaria will have to hope the United States or even China will provide financial aid in the middle of a global Financial Crisis that will last at least a decade.
By 2030, Europe and the rest of the world will still feel the effects of this failed union of European states as citizens will struggle to survive and with most people taking the way of Canada, the US and New Zealand in search for a better life. With radical political parties in power, war between former member states will be sure to follow. Old enemies will remember even older territorial claims, national debts will be invoked as motives, natural resources targeted as each neighboring country will try to survive. Most likely the Balkan region will turn into a battlefield; Hungary and Romania will be at war due to territorial claims and Russia will seize the moment to get Moldova back through old soviet sympathizers. Political relations between Turkey and Romania will grow colder and colder once the last few oil spots in the Black Sea will turn into points of dispute between the two countries. Ireland, the UK and Spain will have an immigrant problem, with the UK turning slowly into a totalitarian state with stricter rules and zero tolerance toward foreigners. Due to the large Muslim population in the UK and Ireland, members of this subgroup will be targeted and the Middle East will react to protect former citizens and members of specific faiths. In turn, the UK and its long-time ally in the West will seize the opportunity to wage war on the few remaining Middle Eastern countries tat still have a sizable economic wealth and oil resources to exploit.
It will take at least a decade since the disbandment of the European Union for member states to enter a stage of relative peace and stability, with the US greatly affected by the new Financial Crisis and the Russia/China duo dictating terms both politically and economically.”

Bun, și-acum să vedem ce-am nimerit eu corect în 2012:

  • ”the UK turning slowly into a totalitarian state with stricter rules and zero tolerance toward foreigners” – Brexit anyone?
  • ”countries will revert back to their own laws and customs, with only the most politically and economically advanced keeping shards of former EU rules and regulations as these will be hard to change in the mindset of countries like Germany or Luxembourg.” – este că Ungaria, UK, Franța și alte țări au devenit mai conservatoare și promovează valori tradiționaliste (Orban, Le Pen)? Este că Germania e la cârmă cu Merkel încercând să mențină ordinea?
  • ”Mass migrations from more economically unfortunate countries like Romania and Bulgaria will spark a new wave of xenophobia in other countries like Spain and Hungary as more and more foreigners will struggle to take on jobs normally destined for locals.” – N-am nimerit-o cu România și Bulgaria dar în locul lor e Siria. Și – din nou – Brexit.
  • ”xenophobia and extremist parties that will grab the chance of economic instability to have a word in political decisions” – Le Pen, Brexit, Victor Orban, ”Golden Dawn” în Grecia and so on.
  • ”Members states of the EU becoming less and less preoccupied with military affairs will soon prove unfit to deal with social unrest, riots, waves of hate toward foreigners.” – check.
  • ”member states will start leaving the European Union and reverting back to their old monetary system” – Brexit.
  • ”Radical groups will ask for detachment from the EU in order to preserve national spirit, customs and a sense of national pride.” – UKIP, Le Pen, Jobbik în Ungaria, etc.
  • ”Old enemies will remember even older territorial claims” – Războiul din Ucraina.
  • ”Most likely the Balkan region will turn into a battlefield” – Războiul din Ucraina.
  • ”Political relations between Turkey and Romania will grow colder and colder” – Vezi regimul totalitar din Turcia de azi.
  • ”Ireland, the UK and Spain will have an immigrant problem, with the UK turning slowly into a totalitarian state with stricter rules and zero tolerance toward foreigners.” – Brexit.
  • ”Due to the large Muslim population in the UK and Ireland, members of this subgroup will be targeted” – Check.